Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 82865.549905 87446.963679 92024.250500 96937.287529 102058.083598 107234.754825 112860.095634
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 75458.178378 82488.967946 89707.461815 97662.282714 106172.011365 114991.965208 124813.918409
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 69741.292592 78415.575303 87515.917051 97753.718453 108928.560785 120734.224606 134127.219588
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 66149.070617 76139.108629 86808.942517 99017.341342 112563.061037 127095.334701 143827.583255
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 62187.810405 73103.148918 84949.369828 98709.081544 114197.801829 131039.679634 150682.245999
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 59985.875176 71828.499847 84861.946484 100199.193253 117679.325910 136906.581585 159577.798680
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 57737.944494 70335.229428 84380.091887 101107.215137 120389.447509 141822.397548 167346.075731
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 55239.712105 68406.609411 83268.929842 101172.085126 122032.167004 145447.710153 173591.151080
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 52861.021121 66494.727231 82065.661546 101025.135962 123339.515169 148618.612894 179264.381719
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 51783.605387 66054.906800 82524.797555 102770.203914 126809.861068 154263.208322 187795.270306
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 50783.253669 65645.923213 82968.960071 104455.142718 130181.523289 159783.293433 196193.554481
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 49371.281215 64670.888541 82679.301308 105214.599475 132419.152650 163953.709953 203007.428467
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 47562.219770 63169.856630 81730.168373 105171.061016 133709.636922 167043.028302 208615.206883
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 46109.562455 62059.766851 81214.495309 105619.352550 135571.280300 170807.699256 215044.577876
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 44538.079498 60741.852922 80391.316321 105644.284797 136882.860252 173892.320895 220655.665336
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 43699.349894 60315.720554 80643.450860 106972.529156 139773.696139 178879.320738 228575.772233
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 42125.612456 58893.075628 79598.996011 106640.977696 140583.744597 181319.483501 233401.080296
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 41528.281682 58707.011751 80093.810494 108225.231650 143763.561237 186656.942199 241780.638932
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 40687.336436 58170.489495 80115.929865 109190.786861 146159.379394 191033.443028 249000.440694
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 39494.673854 57131.029216 79458.244442 109259.735312 147405.433801 193979.241807 254459.940911
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 38264.132476 56002.485172 78650.236019 109103.445366 148340.820238 196523.749372 259419.131185
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 37944.064200 56081.839761 79404.646992 110959.150869 151838.617499 202277.854693 268401.252918
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 37615.321574 56134.052717 80112.940967 112750.553081 155259.063696 207951.585619 277316.310151